Goji Berries ---Connecting the Dots and Covid-19

In this issue, I connect the dots on some recent efforts in connecting the dots. I also raise a controversial question. Let me know why you think I am wrong. Keep healthy. Keep fresh.

A big focus in statistics is on how to connect the dots. Economists regularly contribute to the literature. The following examples are not about those economists. They are about connecting the dots with ideological glue and fairy dust.

1. Color Book. Raghuram Rajan, an ex-RBI governor who had a falling out with Indian PM Narendra Modi, and a professor of finance at the University of Chicago, recently spoke about the challenges facing the Indian economy. While discussing the trends in growth in the Indian economy, he presented the following slide:

Rajan described the slide as follows:

Read more about the presentation here.

Modi is no saint, though you can be forgiven for mistaking him as one (see below). Read more about the dirty numbers on the Swachh Bharat Campaign.

2. Bad Relationships. A new QJE includes some fun examples of how not to infer relationships. To infer the relationship between male dominance in agriculture and male dominance in folklore, for instance, the article plots a non-linear line through 20 points.

If we believe India’s Covid-19 numbers, where there has been no social distancing for a few months and mask adherence etc. is low, it is not clear to me why India should invest in vaccinating the population.